Poker Strategy: Top Set But Not The Best Runout

Poker Strategy Info And Source:

In this hand we flop top set against the preflop raise and look to extract value from his overpairs. However, the runout isn’t the best and JJ and QQ make bigger sets.

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Poker Strategy: Top Set But Not The Best Runout

10 thoughts on “Poker Strategy: Top Set But Not The Best Runout

  1. That river spot was so difficult. You were getting value from AA(6), KK(6), AQspade(1), QJspade(1) = 14 combos and were beat by: 910spade(1), JJ(3), QQ(3) = 7 combos. So you almost have to value bet but got unlucky. Further JJ was less likely (given his passive turn play) so you may have thought he only had 4 value combos vs. 14 worse combos. Tough luck.

  2. I don't really understand why the call in. Just to share the bad beat? How can you ever get away… Realistically there should have been even more money in the pot so you had less of a decision on the river

  3. If hero checks here, this will be the ultimate check.
    If hero plays enough plo, he's a plo master.

  4. 100% disagree with Bart on the river. When we bet $185 and get XRAI OTR…. we are never good on this board.
    he checked dark the turn after being raised and called the raise. Usually this is a pair and since he was the preflop raiser an overpair. People just don't XRAI bluff $400 on the river @ 1/2 on a board that has a possible straight.

    I was guessing our opponent had QQ or JJ and on occasion a rare T9s. Just the way the hand played out

  5. “He knew I had pocket 8s so he floated me”… I wouldn’t say having JJ (an overpair) is floating in that spot lol… if the dude knew he had pocket 8s he’d insta-fold because he has 2 outs. Just crazy unlucky that he turned a set of J

  6. The turn bet should have been bigger, but I actually think, the river decision is a very close one between betting and checking behind. The reason is, we started with almost 300 BB, and many good players will not stack off an overpair this deep.

    Moreover he might not always open 66 and 33 from early position, and in that case he cant have the lower sets. So it become one of those situations, where we might only lose to 6 combos, and thats all well and good. But because the pot is so huge already, we might not get action from much else.

    Also while ideally we should only consider EV in a cash game, losing 300 BB in a single pot create massive variance, which is a bad thing, unless you are playing very conservatively for your bankroll. And for that reason it can actually be fine to take off some of these massive spots, if they are only marginally profitable at best.

  7. Need to do the George Castanza poker bet on occasion. Do the opposite. It's true in $1/2 that a small value bet shows set or better & a bigger bet shows flush draw or a power play continuation. That is the Psychology of 95% of small stakes players. So bet large, knowing thy enemy, while acting like you're chasing the flush.

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