10 thoughts on “Craps strategy $220 Regression! Plus an UT OH

  1. Thanks Jacob, a great demonstration on how stubbornness can kill a bankroll. It was like watching me play in the past, not the strategy, but the inability to adjust my strategy and continue to tilt until my bankroll was gone! I like the doey, don’t idea, so you can take off your 6 & 8 DP’s. Cheers

  2. Thanks for sharing Amigo. Tough night. I like the lessons learned about being stubborn lol. It’s like continuing doing the same stupid thing over and over expecting a different result. We all get tilted sometimes lol. Good coaching demonstration showing what will happen.

  3. πŸ™‹πŸ½β€β™‚οΈ Guilty of being hard headed and refusing to change my strategy to adjust to the table

  4. Yeah don't can be rough.

    8 ways to lose on the come-out, only 3 ways to win, and 1 push for even money, which is a bad deal for that part of the bet. Then when it travels you have 10 out of 24, (41%) chance of it going to the 6 and 8 which then only has 6 out of 11 (55%) chance of winning for even money payout. Ok a slight mathematical advantage, but not great given the risk to get there when it's landing on the 6 or 8.

    If you add up the come out losses you lose 22% of your don't wagers every roll of the come-out so if it takes 2 rolls to set a point *then you just faced a 89% chance of losing*. With all those horn numbers, we saw how often the don't lost during come outs, and it was only saved by the yo hedge which is more overhead to add into the mix. All the trials of the come-out and the next set of trials to not get knocked off before the seven makes it a lower probabilty play than it first appears, especially when you don't win or set the point on the first roll.

    I feel a lay or the doey-don't with lay odds is a superior way to establish cover with payout odds at the true probability, yeah it's not even payout, but you don't face all the trials with the don't.

  5. Why don't you take down some of your exposure on the 5 don't pass after hitting some numbers

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