9 thoughts on “Craps strategy. The 1.5 DONT no Matter What!

  1. I like this play! One loss per shooter (if the shooter beats you once, just wait for the next shooter). Should not fail you. Just donโ€™t let the same shooter beat you over, and over, and over.
    FYI…I practiced the No 10 and No 4 play day before yesterday. Every time I walked by the practice rig. 15 times I hit the 7 within three rolls (a winner for me). Yesterday, I had one hand that went 42 rolls before I could roll a 7 (yes, using the all 7โ€™s set). Today, I worked every time, but one. Frustrating game.

  2. Definitely a fun strategy, but way too scary!
    I'd probably go up maybe 3 levels, then reset back to $30.
    Hmm…๐Ÿค”, actually, I'd probably start with $20.
    Then, $30.
    Then, $45.
    Then, reset back to $20.
    But, that's just me. ๐Ÿ˜

  3. I think this is an interesting general framework for a single don't bet.

    With some rules around resetting bet level say after 2-3 consecutive losses could be a reasonable approach to managing drawdowns.

    I would also put much less on the flat comeout and then lay odds since that's where the biggest risk is against you.

    Also only going up 20% at a time still grows exponentially and was the 'just right' number to balance taking profits vs exponential growth used by the famous (now deceased) Rappin Captain who would religiously press odds on bets by 20% and would win $50k+ on longer rolls. He was a light side player but the concept is similar, you want enough profit as you grow but you don't want to stifle growth either.

    Another option is to bring say 50 units and always press by a single unit win or lose. Leave when you have made say 20-40% of your session bankroll.

    So analysing the don't bet, you will lose 8/36 of your don't bets, win 3/36, push on 1/36 and set a point on 24/36. You are favourite to win 60% of those points on a PSO. So overall win expectation of a travelled don't is approximately 40%. (Add comeout wins for a total win expectation of about 48% 47.9292…%).

    Interestingly the field has a better 44% chance of success than a travelled don't but a much higher house edge, along with a faster per roll resolution. When increasing your bets win or lose the house edge gets magnified as a percentage of the bet that lost by 150% each time which is ultimately what makes the field a bad bet vs the don't when progressing.

    So house edge really does make all the difference between a don't and the field especially when using a progression.

  4. ThIs is how I built up my bankroll to a level where I could comfortably play do strategies. Still use it on 50 and up table limits

  5. I agree, "The simpler you keep things in craps the better." The systems with a lot of moving parts, as you put it, often slowly drain you. This system shows that you can still be aggressive and keep it simple. Great work.

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