10 thoughts on “🕙 Craps in a Minute: House Edge vs Probability”

1. When I am scouting tables to play my Don't strategy, I always look for 'Odds' bettors all hunched over, counting what's left of their chips.

2. I agree. Just got into the same discussion with one of my viewers. I said the same thing to him.

3. The house has the true advantage on every bet. The place bettors who go across all the box numbers have to hit four times before big red hits to get ahead. Everything comes down to math, bankroll, risk tolerance, and good old fashioned luck. A lot of the odds players would love for all the come bets to hit on sixes and eights which has 5 ways to win and six ways to lose on Big Red. If you are hoping for lighting to strike in a spot or two that is totally random, it sure does make sense to get paid two for one on odds instead of just getting paid even money on the come without odds. Odds are nice but as I've read in a book or two, the casino doesn't do anything at a craps table to be nice! The same holds true for the players on the Dark Side. We are all looking for The Force to help us win!

4. Thanks John, I agree that we need to be mindful of house edge and probability when deciding how to bet. With your example of a $5 come bet that travels to a 4 and then gets $20 odds for a total of $25 outlay, this will pay $45 in total when the second 4 is hit. However, if you place $25 on the 4 (even without the buy) it will also pay $45 for the first hit and then an additional $45 for the second hit. The probability of the first hit is 1 in 2, the probability of the second hit is substantially worse. Strategies that use come bets to add value to the 7 as part of a progression make sense tome, come bets that are looking for the value of the odds on the box number make no sense to me as you need to hit the number twice to get the benefit of the true odds. Cheers. Rob

5. Craps is a Negative expectation game. The math really tells us that we should avoid the game altogether if you expect to win frequently.

   The odds bets is always being pushed as the best bet. Taking or laying odds, only increases volatility.

   When I see these So- Called Dice Influencers wagering these multi bets, ie…Across, inside, Even, odd, Iron Cross, etc….I simply cringe.

   Is it exciting to bet that way? From a sheer mathematical point…..NO!!!

   From a sheer, " Action" perspective? Hell yeah! Lol

   If you'll notice, It's a rarity to witness my videos depicting betting. Why? Simply, because i REFUSE to advocate betting Across, inside, etc at the start of a hand.

   Actually, i dont even recommend those type betting strategies as the hand progresses, because you never know WHEN the hand-ending seven out is coming! However, no logical gambler ( whether Dice Influencer, Controlled Shooter, Outlier, or Random Roller) is going to stand at a table & watch number after number being tossed WITHOUT eventually joining the party.

   I DO know THIS…..there is no such thing as Dice Influencers, or Dice Controllers.

   There are only CONTROLLED Shooters that attempt to toss the dice in sync, land the dice in the same general area/ spot, minimizing bounce & rollout from the backwall to POSSIBLY give the best CHANCE to skew probability.

   Just MY opinion.
   There are three types of Shooters.
   (1) Random Rollers
   (2) Controlled Shooters
   (3) Outlier Shooters

   Anything else is simply a figment of the imagination.

   So- Called Dice Influencers = Ego exceeding intellect + Confirmation Bias.😆

6. The house counts on 1000s of rolls, the players count on 10s of rolls. Play your strategy, manage your money have fun.

7. Great clarification!

8. Wait. So every advice the casino gives me on where I should put my money is for THEIR advantage. They always tell new players to make a passline bet if they want to play. And then they tell them to put odds behind it. It’s NOT because the Point of 4 is the most probable number to hit?!!!

   I thought they were looking out for me!
   But I hear so many players here repeat the same advice. SMH

   (Sarcasm here for those not smart enough to notice. )

9. Probability that a field don't won't be rolled in like 5 or 6 rolls esp after you wait on like 2 no field rolls
   So Probability is massively in your favour if you also double your bet martingale each time.
   But still doesn't seem to work

10. Liking the shorts John!

Comments are closed.