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Thank you
Great video! Is there a way to take into consideration the total number of cards actually dealt out? Example, if there are 9 players at the table, and you end up heads up with an opponent, there are 14 cards that are gone from the deck that the other players folded. If you are on a flush draw, you have to believe that a certain amount of the cards you need have been folded by the other players. If you estimate that 1/4 of the cards are each suit, you have lost 3 outs. I don't know if this is accurate, but I have always thought about this!
I have a question:
In your example, you used:
Pot = 100, opponent bets 50, pot odds = 3-1. You need to win 25% of the time or more to break even.
But isnt this…false? I say this because if you are on the flop, then you still have two cards to show up. Your chance of hitting your outs by the River are 60% (using the rule of 4 and 2), but the next card is not the river, its the turn. Essentially meaning that:
Pr(Flush) on Turn = ~30%
Pr(Flush) on River = ~60%
Now your pot odds require a win rate of 25%, so in this particular example, its an easy call because even the turn has a >25% of hitting. But isn't this 25% break even point dependent on the villians bet after the turn being 0? If it is non-zero (which it will be if the villian continues showing strength), then isn't the real pot odds:
Risk: 50 + [Uknown Turn Bet]
Reward = 100 + 50 * 2 + [Unknown Turn Bet]
Odds = Risk / Reward.
Am I saying something silly here?