10 thoughts on “Poker Strategy: Aces Gets An Ugly Runnout”

1. I think you are overthinking the hand. Many players at this level usually make a ton of mistakes and don't often play hands correctly. I actually thought he had a pair and straight/flush draw after the turn. I realize he called a 4-bet pre-flop, but again, players can get very sticky pre-flop with mediocre holdings at these levels. My instinct was possibly K-10 spades. The turn half size pot bet screamed to me like somewhat of a blocker bet. It was just a bizarre lead. His holding of KK was shocking given the way it was played, but as it turned out, it was indeed a pair and straight draw after turn. As I watched the hand unfold, I would have just jammed the turn. I think a 2 pair hand or set by the villain bets more than half pot there if they are leading. If he does hold AK, god bless, show it to me.

2. Really think what's going on with villain here is that he wasn't hand-reading and was worried hero would check back with a hand KK beats and he wanted to get his value in.

3. I can’t stand fish 🤦🏽‍♂️(both players in the hand)

4. Hands like this is why poker is hard.
   Heck, even Doug Polk tried low stakes a couple of times. They chewed up him up, spit him out, and said thanks for the money.

5. I honestly think that Villain knew exactly what he was doing and did turn his KK into a bluff. He knows Hero has aces. And he knows this is a perfect runout to get him off of those aces. Thats also why he shows them at the end.

6. He is bo genius

7. everyone here is so results oriented. Bart is right; 90% of the time here you're beat and you fold. The idea villain is donking 2 streets as a bluff is hilarious, its not a good move because KK is "bottom of his range" when he has all the AQ and KQ combos as worse hands, on turn hero has 6 combos of AA he beats and 8 of AK, 3 of QQ, 3 of JJ he loses to…so its not a good bluff with KK its a thoughtless donk.

8. As played I think the villain can pretty easily put Hero on AA, and use his blockers to bluff this board. If the pot was inflated more with a standard open, 3bet, 4bet; I don't think this would work, but with the depth there is enough fold equity. I give this guy credit for putting Hero on AA and using his blockers as a bluff. KK and KQ are the only bluffs he could ever have, everything else have Hero in bad shape. Exploitative play by villain. I love your analysis Bart, it for sure looks like Hero is beat 99% of the time.

9. min raise / 4betting the SB in position 200BB deep is very strong. Hero would almost always have called QQ / AK in position (assuming a normal dynamic and the SB not being crazy). So if he is balanced, we could see him 4betting AA, KK and some AKs for value, and some A5s as a bluff with the A blocker (but again, would he min raise A5s ? I don't know).
   In this case, when Hero bets the flop, we could rule out all the AKs that aren't exactly AKss.
   Since Villain has KK, he should turn his hand into a bluff only if he has the King of spades. The only hand left in Hero's range is AA at this point (when he calls the turn, the only hand that would trap call is AKss). And betting half pot with KK and getting 50% folds on this bord beats checking and losing to AA almost always. At last, range wise Villain have many more nutted hands than Hero on the turn and river, so Hero should always fold even if this time he had a better hand as it will occur much less then 25% of the time.

   It doesn't make sence for Villain to value KK river and even less lead the turn if it wasn't a bluff (to balance leading some QQ / JJ and AK on the turn).

10. Qk he could have as well k of spades

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