Poker Strategy Info And Source:
In this hand we have an overpair in a 3 bet pot and are facing some barrels, Bart takes this opportunity to talk about MDF and how to use it.
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Source: YouTube
Does anyone here think the villain on the turn is betting anything other than 88-99-TT?
I'm not sure I believe villain has AA or KK here. He can be disgusted with the Q on the river, but unless he had a 7…. I don't see why he would slow down unless he had KK and was afraid of AA.
Sure
We could lead the river 250-ish full range, turning (some of our) JJ into a bluff. Fold JJ, 7x and the weakest flushes to a jam. We probably get to a cheap showdown, even get thin value from hands that would check behind otherwise.
I kinda like the flat preflop if he thought that villain was loose and bluffy. You are way ahead of villain's range and your hand will be under-repped a lot…villain might go crazy with 66 or have AJ on a jack-high flop…seems like a lot of ways you might get paid off.
I don't think MDF applies in all optimal play. Pio doesn't defend as per MDF
He would show AA and KK, or he maybe wouldn't but most would just show, check back seems like a give up, I'm certainly betting here with aces I'm not checking back because a queen came and if he sees u as a tighter cold caller I'm not giving u clubs often mostly 88 plus.
How about a fake blocker bet on the riv ($200?) in an attempt to in induce a raise?
Bart! Everything else you said about this hand is Genius, but don't you think that you should be leading the River more?! If your opponent made a flush on the river, they will oftentimes jam, and the are at least calling with 10-10,JJ, AA, KK, amd they could have a BOAT already here. I like a small size, like 500-600, giving your opponent room to make the big blunder!
I think a small blocker bet on river makes the most sense in the range of 200-300. You get snapped off by AA and KK. A flush which you dont block would probably raise. Just my 2 cents when you have the virtual nuts you cant always count on your opponent to value bet. I suppose in some cases you shut down his bluffs but if anything the small sizing may induce a raise if he has no showdown value.