Poker Strategy Info And Source:
In this hand we flop a medium strength top pair and turn a flush draw and straight draw. Bart goes over if it is better to semibluff or just call with our show down value.
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How about leading out on the flop, or, barring that, definitely on the turn? I think I can see a few reasons for that… Villain could have just been barrelling here with AQ/AJ/AT, or had something like pocket 10s..since you played it weakly, why should he stop betting really? Seems like semibluffing as a check-raise would be a lot more expensive than betting out to kind of see where you are at and maybe take it down…if you check-raise and he has the goods, you're sunk.
I also question if it's really semibluffing at all with what could very well be the best hand…?
I would raise big on the river or semibluff the turn and jam river bc you block the nuts with the 10 for 107
i feel like we dont beat anything but our hand has showdown value. we lose to sets of 88 and 99 k8 k9 which we have a king blocker too. is our hand too strong to fold with the price on the river? its assumed that hed 3 bet AK and KQ against a maniac open so we lose to KJ, K8 diamonds or k9 diamonds if the suits are correct and sets. maybe we beat J10 and random bluffs. hard spot?
I think, Hero played this almost perfectly. His line is definitly a good standard line on all streets, and when the Villain is described as a very good pro, I like it even more. Hero was playing the game partly go get involved with a VIP, but just as important as knowing, who you want to get involved with is knowing, who you want to NOT get involved with to much, if you can avoid it.
I am of course not saying, that we should always fold, just because a good player has entered the pot. But why take lines, that bloat the pot against that exact person like raising the turn out of position? Is that going to create an environment, which is more mistake rich for him or us? Probably the latter is the case, and here its really important to be honest with yourself.
I think a set makes a lot of sense because he thinks he can get 5k out of the VIP if he flops a set against an overpair, which is why he doesn't three-bet; however, if this is a good player he can be turning 6-7 into a bluff because he blocks some hands, in addition to the other suited combos of hands with a ten (J-10, Q-10 etc) and even JQ suited. Tough spot. I think if you watch people's bet sizing in other hands they play you may find yourself with some surprisingly powerful info. Is this just-less-than-2/3-pot bet indicative of his strong hands or is this guy usually betting %80 here with the nutted hands and %25 with KQ. You see these types of betting tells from a lot of winning players who don't even bother to apply balance because they are just trying to exploit.