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91st #HelloAlec is coming from my reader Jonathan. He played this cash game hand and won. He holds Ace King, and he calls villain’s all in on the turn. He wants to know was this poker strategy profitable in the long run? What would you do here?
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You made 2 tournament player mistakes in this hand. First, with multiple limpers before you, your bet sizing should be way bigger in cash. Secondly, you way overplayed your AK. The combo of hands villain can have on the turn that you can beat is so miniscule. You are really just setting money on fire with this type of call in the long run. Your reasoning for the call is shaky at best. Making a call like that is all about villain image and reads, because the math is horribly against you.
In the absence of a player read, we're left to the cards. preflop against a range your in a doing flip but after the flop you're in a way ahead, way behind scenario. Getting laid 2:1 looks fine as a consequence.
It might seem obvious, but in practice, it isn't; so I say: bravo for submitting a winning hand.
Great deduction on AQ just right , Heck Yah, that is pure EV , do that every day
Shark Move. Very good call if you really think your opponent was NOT a fish and was shoving with pocket pairs 22-TT even Jacks since you have JJ+ in your range. He's only repping nutted of bluff hands here and he has more bluffs than nuts. Nice hand.
Preflop should be bigger. $18 after a $6 open and a $6 call is barely a half pot raise. You don't have to go nuts IP, but $25 would be better (it's still not an overraise, but we should get some value for our end).
Flop…eh, whatever. I'd bet smaller with my entire range here. If, say, we had AA, we go $25 pre and get action ($59 pot), we bet $30 and he calls, we have $235 in stacks and $119 in the pot.
Turn, obviously nice call given the results, but not sure how profitable this is. I think it's close: the price is terrrrrrrible and a bad player could easily be doing this with one of the hands you described, even like a 66 type hand trying to "protect". You're right to snuff out his play as BS and not nutted (I'd never expect generic 1/2 guy to 2x shove turn w/ quads), but even against a hand as weak as 33, we've 14% equity while sticking in 40% of the money on this street. Not a fun spot to be in. I will say that it's good logic w/r/t your opponent's range, which makes me more likely to trust your read and play.
hehe Jonathan – I think this is Jonathan little – with his layout!. So he is a pro – he knows what he is doing… But I can not say, I do agree to this bet. I am sure he has done a Equilab test so I wonder what range he assigned to his villian – appreciated if he can explain.
lets' discuss and put villain in a range, in general villain should not have much premium hand i am quite shock villain have AQ over here and he did not raise preflop. villain could have any pair JJ and below, 9T , 89, is in villain range 51 combo + 16 combo = 66 combo that are winning hero range in flop, in turn 51 combos + 8 combos 59 combos if villain have any bluff range, KQ QJ TJ 78 67 = 76 combo, lets take out some of the combo i might not have 76 let say reduce to 50 combo with 59 combo value range 50 combo bluff range i think with the price given we shall still call. Hi guys please give me your feedback my thinking is it correct?
in the long run i would say definitely not a profitable call. You have to be right a little more than 2/3 of the time to be profitable. This goes back to knowing your opponent and what they are or aren't capable of.
When I first saw this, I found the call spewy. But after going through it again, I think this was a very profitable call. When Villain overbet shoves like this, he is essentially representing the nuts or nothing. And its almost impossible for him to have the nuts here. He called a 3-bet out of position, so his range is pretty well capped. This eliminate most if not all 9´s from his range, because the 9 is a low card. At worst he have A9 suited, T9 suited and 98 suited. Which is only 3 combos, because 3 of the 4 nines are on the table. And it also eliminate or greatly reduce big pocket pairs like QQ-AA, because he would most likely have 3-bet those preflop or gone for a backraise. So he has a super narrow value range, if any at all. Which leave him with 90% or more bluffs, when he make this play.