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Last #HelloAlec for this week is coming from my reader Andre. He played this tournament hand online and he would like to know more about his line here? On the first place, he would like to know is this good fold on the river? Full house fold. What would be your tournament poker strategy here? Would you fold as well here? Your poker analysis? Your tips?
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Man. That is a tough spot. Since It's tournament, Hero folding is ok. If Hero calls and Villain wins the pot, Then Hero gets knocked out. Imo, It's not worth the risk. Keep grinding.
If villain is a good player, I find it really hard for him to have complete air, or really to be bluffing at all in this spot. The lead on the turn looks like it could be bluff-y (nobody else bet flop, so probably nobody has Ac or 77 and he could represent a strong flush with a bet on the 4th club on the board), but the check on the river does NOT seem like something a bluff would do, unless your call on the turn spooked him and he decided to essentially give up if you checked back. To then bluff-shove on the river, though, villain would have to think one of two things: 1) you're bad enough to bet the river with Kc or Qc, but then good enough to fold it to a shove or 2) you're tight enough to fold a full house on the river because villain has several 7c in his range. Both of those scenarios seem very unlikely to me.
All that to say, I think if villain is good, he has zero bluffs in his range in this spot. That leaves us asking which value range would raise hero's river bet. Hero can pretty much only have full houses here with that river value bet, so villain has to be able to beat that. The only thing that really makes sense is for villain to have the 7c and be hoping to get max value from your full house calling his bet. I say good fold.
I don't begrudge hero's fold here. With 30bbs behind and early in the tourney, there may be better spots down the road.
That said I probably go down here. I'm not that good and if it's a bad beat oh well. Everything here reads villain has us beat but like I just said. I'm not that good.
I would prefer to see you bet the flop. You flopped well, but you have no info as to where you stand. You can only get called by strong made hands and good flush draws (especially from small blind who has players to act behind him). When you get called you will know to proceed cautiously on the turn, especially when the fourth flush card comes in. If SB leads into you will know he has a monster ie 7c or Ac. If he checks then you can check behind knowing you only have a bluff catcher. When the board pairs at the river because you checked the turn he will bet for value and you can call (he is unlikely to shove because you looked weak on the turn).
Anyone think hero 3-betting pre is maybe a better play than flatting here? With UTG only raising min, blinds are getting a good price to call with a wide range of hands which means we are usually getting out-flopped by one of the three opponents, even though there's a good chance we're ahead pre-flop. I might rather 3-bet to perhaps 5x BB and play with the betting lead in position from there.
check-shove there shows power for sure … almost never a bluff from a solid player
Good discipline fold,be it in tourney this is a gd fold you can wait for better spot. in cash game is abt hard to fold but what hand can check shove you 7 of club is very likely in vilain range. no point make a hero call unless you are sure villain is exploiting you . you know why most player are not profiting , cos they cant find the fold button.
I know I probably repeat what was already said by others but I like to write it up and then compare to what others have commented. Tournament call from button with call 4 BB raise from UTG with 55. SB BB call. Scary board. All clubs with straight draw but you have to figure club are not good so you have 4 outs to improve. Flop checks around – good. So you make a set. That club does not look good and another card to straight. You are behind any club, 6, 8, or over pair. Chop a 7. Call 1000 into a pot of 3840. You have 9 outs to a boat or quad. You are getting immediate odds to call – good call. River you make a boat. You are only losing to a very narrow range – 88, 66, 86, 85, 84, 65, 64, 7club – if the SB got there then more power to them – and I think SB would have value bet any of those. Checked to you and you bet 3/5 the pot – I like that bet. SB shoves. You have to call. It so looks like a big flush that thinks they are up against a smaller flush. Oh my goodness you folded. I don't think he was bluffing. He thought a big flush was good. It would be hard for the villain to put you on a small pocket pair. If villain had some 468 combo they would have bet the flop to protect a from a flush. The bet on the turn so looks like they have the A clubs.
I really hate this fold. First reason is, that we are not playing 300 BB deep poker. We are playing 40 BB deep. And if you are going to fold in 40 BB deep poker, just because you dont have the pure nuts and your opponent gets aggressive, you are going to get absolutly crushed in the long run. I know, its a tournament, and we dont want to bust out and all that. But still. This is to nitty. If he really had pocket 7´s with the 7 of clubs, then good for him. Just bust out and buy in to another tournament instead. Its no big deal.
Second reason is, I dont think that guy is very good. Maybe he was a winning regular, but he played his hand in an extremely fishy way. He was not bluffing for sure. But why then does he bet so small on turn and then check the river when called by Hero? If Hero had checked behind with a K high flush, as a prudent player would, he get almost no value from his nuttish hand. And if Hero bet, as he did, he achieved maximum fold equity by playing his hand this way, so he still only won one bet from Hero. And why would he want that, if he had the nuts? So this guy was clearly not understanding the dynamics of the game, or what bet sizing does. He played his hand in a way, which is almost like watching two 7 year old girls daring each other. "You first" "No you" "No I said it first". And then when one of them finally goes first then the other one comes in "BAM ha ha got you". This is not the way, good poker players play. And since he was a bad player, it is also entirely possible, that he could be overvaluing the A high flush even on a paired board.