Cash Game: Is My Poker Strategy (With a Top Pair) profitable In the Long Run?

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My reader Johan brings us this #HelloAlec episode. He played this live cash game hand recently and he folded his top pair against his opponent’s second pair. He would like to know more about his cash game poker strategy in the long run. What would you do in his shoes? Would you call villain’s all in on the turn or not? Your analysis? Your tips?
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Cash Game: Is My Poker Strategy (With a Top Pair) profitable In the Long Run?

10 thoughts on “Cash Game: Is My Poker Strategy (With a Top Pair) profitable In the Long Run?

  1. I'm not sure what hands villain is representing here? A set of 5's or 9's would have surely checked raised on the flop with that draw heavy board. If he had an over pair to the board surely the villain, who was the straddler, would have 4 bet pre flop.

    AQ would have flatted pre flop but on the flop I highly doubt AQ would simply flatted there in that spot with that draw heavy board. Then after a blank on the turn check shove.

    That's an inconsistent story villain is trying to tell. Inconsistent stories are usually bluffs.
    I would have expected him to turn up a combo draw bluff of some kind instead of a middle pair with no draw whatsoever. That part puzzles me. In hindsight the villain seems to be a bit of a maniac.

  2. I'd like to hear Alec's opinion on this one. I would have played it just like the poster and with the same logic. Some people also make strong points against it. The reason I think this is important is that TPGK is such a staple of your range, playing it right is super important and not always as clear as is the nuts or air.

  3. All i think about is why would they jam And not call? I was faced with a similar situation (10 times less intense). 4 handed To the river And It checks To the button (pair on board). Button bets $150 into a $180 pot. I Just had Ace high. I felt like he was trying To steal it. I ended up calling And being correct (i won). This is similar in that i find It hard To believe that Villain had a hand better than Qx. $1,800 is a lot of money ($2,000 table), so That's likely the reason Hero folded. I'm assuming that Hero isn't loaded with $$$

  4. Could it be that the straddler is calling on the flop to keep the UTG+2 in the pot? I still like betting the turn, but you have to realize that KQ is near the bottom of your range and would have to make a difficult call to a reraise. Either bet $600 on turn or check back for pot control.

  5. I think it's a sensible fold against an unknown. Obviously it's villain-dependant – if you have seen him do this kind of thing before there is a lot more merit to calling it off, but readless it's a very uncomfortable situation to be in with TPGK and I can't fault you for folding as his actions suggested that your hand was no good OTT.

  6. He can have some monster draws on the flop, hands like JTss A9ss, would play that way. 2d on the turn is a total blank, I don't think 22 or x2s would play OOP face a raise, even if he defend with 22, it's really hard for him to call flop 2/3 the pot bet, because it's too hard for him to play on later streets. So I think when he check-raise all-in on the turn, he is usually bluffing and targets on QJs++ and tt-jj, maybe few hands like AKss

  7. control the pot.
    in position bet,check,call.just or bet bet check.cap your range,let the guy know you range,and he might bluff you on the river or he had it if he lead out in the river with huge down at least once the river with strong hand.
    you go bet bet with one pair,it is just hard to get to river.or too easy to get bluff on the river.
    just check back the turn. give him a free card,he might get there ,but you have a much easier time on the river.and against good player when you check back the turn you are saying you have AQ or JJ or 2 spade,good player will bluff you turn to get your hand off ,so even a spade hit ,you should still call the river if you lead out,if he don't,you can check back or value bet.if you don't know the guy maybe check back,but if you are 80oercent sure you should go bet river and prepare call a check raise.
    or if you ak hit top pair top kicker go bet bet ,and prepare to call a all in on the river.

  8. 1. The villain had similar blockers, so I have to imagine he was making a move to get you to fold a hand that was ahead of his, like Bob said.

    2. If this wasn't the case, some of the combos in his straddle call range would lend to him trying to push you off of these draws.

    This lends to calling the shove being profitable in the long run even without considering the missing check-raise postflop.

  9. Giving some info on villian such as a previous hand history would be helpful, but I think if villian is capable of semi bluffing at all this is a snap call. As previously mentioned, sets and probably also AQ should be check raising the flop most of the time. AQ should also be 3 betting you pre flop. A9,2,3,4,5S J10S and other pairs+flush draw or flush draw+gutshot combos seem like the only reasonable range all of which you're a solid favorite to win with way over the 2:1 pot odds needed to call. Plain and simple villian turned out to be a donkey playing such a lousy hand oop and stacking with middle pair, no draw and what should be no fold equity to almost all better hands all of which are in your range.

    Also even if you do throw in AQ, and sets I'd say you still have more than enough equity vs his range to call. Additionally, if he stacks middle pair then QJ, Q 10 and other KQ should be thrown in as well.

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