A Card Counter’s Guide to Deck Estimation

Blackjack Strategy Video Source & Information:

FULL BLOGPOST WITH ALL THE MATH: https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/bja-guide-to-deck-estimation/

When calculating the True Count, how accurate does your divisor need to be? Should you divide by full deck increments? Half-deck? Quarter-deck?

I break down the math behind how your divisor affects your win-rate as a card counter.


Source: YouTube

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A Card Counter’s Guide to Deck Estimation

10 thoughts on “A Card Counter’s Guide to Deck Estimation

  1. I estimate to the nearest half deck.
    If your eyes tell you there are 2.9 decks in the discard tray, do you round and use 3 as the divisor(deck remaining)? or round down the decks in the discard tray and use 3.5 as the divisor?

  2. Ok quick but important question, why don’t casinos just cover up that clear plastic case with the cards and make it black so a card counter can’t estimate the amount of decks left and find the true count

  3. Colin if your running count is negative 1 or 2 on the border of zero should we even bother looking at the discard tray you shouldn’t be raising bets anyway and obviously if it was really negative we should just leave advice?

  4. When I first started learning counting, I started with one deck and threw true count out the window. Then I experimented with 6 decks and quickly realized the count fluctuates differently in multi deck games, which eventually forced me to learn true count. I slowly but surely moved up my practice from one deck to 2 decks, then 3 decks, 4 decks, 6 decks. After a little practice at 6 decks it quickly occurred to me if I could count down an 8 deck shoe game, I could count down ANY beatable blackjack shoe game (CSM's and most video blackjack games don't count). True count is hard work, but it's worth its weight in gold!

  5. I was hoping maybe you can show in example can you just write it down as a math equation so that we know we’re doing it correctly step by step so if it’s a positive five and we are 2 and a half decks in with 3 and a half decks left how do we get to the true count

  6. Here in Australia they dont stacks the deck so you cant see how much decks have been dealt,. What would you in that situation?

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